FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • Wilzax@lemmy.world
    28·
    4 months ago

    There are about 5 polls that actually matter in this election.

    Pennsylvania (whoever wins this will likely take all), Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

    Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota might matter but I don’t see much chance of them voting Blue, Blue, or Red respectively.

    Wherever you are, just go vote to make the House as blue as you can. Mark down the democratic nominee for president while you’re there.

    • samus12345@lemmy.worldEnglish
      4·
      4 months ago

      And even in those places, Trump supporters are known for not wanting to admit to pollsters that they support him, so they’re not super reliable