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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: August 25th, 2023

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  • Abolishing the monarchy would involve rewriting the constitution - if that was happening every province would want to slip in their own terms - Quebec would want specific French language rights and autonomy and if Quebec got their way Alberta would want something similar. We successfully altered the constitution back in 1982 - it took 2 years and the country almost blew up over it.

    Basically it would be a total shit show. Considering the impact the monarchy has on our day to day life (basically zero) it’s easier to just let sleeping dogs lie






  • The word ‘decipher’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting. I’m wondering if they socially engineered or just found it written somewhere in the house?

    You can plausibly brute force up to 4, maybe 5 words of a seed phrase. It takes longer than a normal password because every seed phrase is technically valid, so the only way to know if your brute force is successful is to generate thousands of addresses at each of the different derivation paths you may expect funds to exist at.

    The same seed phrase is used for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, etc, but each currency uses the seed phrase to generate addresses in a slightly different standard. Additionally, each wallet uses a slightly different variation of that. Within each wallet is a notion of accounts, and within each account you could have dozens of addresses. You need to generate each of those addresses, and scan each cryptocurrencies blockchain to see if those addresses have ever been used.

    Realistically one of three things happened: his seed phrase was written down and they found it, it was password protected or on a drive with weak AES encryption and they cracked THAT instead, or finally, he used a hardware wallet and they exploited a firmware vulnerability to lift the PIN and transfer out funds and/or read the seed from the device









  • I haven’t used dual shock so I can’t speak to that, but as far as Xbox 1/S controllers, there is no 1st party support - literally all the drivers are from some non-MS affiliated GitHub page. 360 controllers required the xpad driver as well - that isn’t 1st party support. Yes they work out of the box with steam if you are using a wired connection, but that’s because it’s going through steaminput (not 1st party either), and making the controls of the submarine dependent on being launched through steam is even more absurd. Gen 2 series 1/S controllers didn’t work via Bluetooth for a long time after they (silently) launched on most LTS Linux OSs due to the kernel missing requisite BLE functionality




  • lol. Did this in my old building - the dryer was on an improperly rated circuit and the breaker would trip half the time, eating my money and leaving wet clothes.

    It was one of the old, “insert coin, push metal chute in” types. Turns out you could bend a coat hanger and fish it through a hole in the back to engage the lever that the push-mechanism was supposed to engage. Showed everyone in the building.

    The landlord came by the building a month later and asked why there was no money in the machines, I told him “we all started going to the laundromat down the street because it was cheaper”



  • These people aren’t placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.

    If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%


  • but either way I don’t think this “market” knew more than the mainstream media was telling us.

    No, but it is a culmination of all the available public information (and some private information you won’t find elsewhere) in a single metric. If you read a single article you would assume there is either a 100% Biden drops out or a 0% chance - if you read every single news article in existence, aggregated all social media buzz, polls, etc, into a statistical likelihood, you would likely come out with a number that closely matches the odds.

    Biden was only going to drop out once, so you can’t say how closely these odds matched the actual likelihood on this specific measure, but if you analyze hundreds of predictive markets like this, the implied odds pretty strongly correlate with the actual binomial outcomes