Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows 55% believe economy is shrinking, in troubling sign for president’s re-election bid

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
      416·
      6 months ago

      It’s metrics.

      American culture has an absolutely horrible relationship with metrics.

      For “the economy” the metrics are profits of corporations. Because back in the day that would generally translate to employee pay, number of employees, and how much money was changing hands.

      But metrics should never be the final thing you look at, it’s just an indicator.

      Like, if your engine light isn’t on but black smoke is pouring out from the engine…

      It’s probably best to look under the hood at what’s actually happening.

      But because our economy is based of wealthy investors, and they just care about the metrics, people game the metrics and come up with this rosey view of how things are.

      Regular Americans don’t care about the metrics that are being gamed. We’re looking at the crazy person who’s driving a car around that’s obviously on fire. When they wave at us like everything is normal, it’s not reassuring, it makes us think that person has no clue what’s going on, and it’s probably not a good idea to let them keep driving

      • Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works
        281·
        6 months ago

        That’s not just America. The whole world is addicted to a school of economics that “models” reality without ever actually studying it.

        Most economists basically operate in a world of frictionless spherical cows moving in an infinite vacuum, and then from this try to infer useful data about the expected price of milk.

        • Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world
          101·
          6 months ago

          Most economists basically operate in a world of frictionless spherical cows moving in an infinite vacuum, and then from this try to infer useful data about the expected price of milk

          😘👌

      • eltrain123@lemmy.world
        72·
        6 months ago

        Recession is coming. What we are seeing is how capitalism works. Businesses are squeezing as much profitability as they can out of existing products. The stories you see about record profits drive those actions. As long as they are making money, they push the strategy. The stories we are just starting to see about price cuts (like Target lowering grocery prices and the likes) are early indicators that corporate profits are peaking and adjustments need to be made to continue sales before revenue falls off a cliff.

        People suffer when they get priced out of purchasing power. Businesses will suffer when they squeeze the market too hard, which is where we are. Unfortunately, people are going to suffer on that side, too, as businesses cut jobs to try to stem the bleeding.

        We are in for a few fucked up years regardless of who gets elected in the next presidency. It takes a long time for real changes in the economy to show up. A lot of what we are dealing with is from the money flooded into the economy during Covid (under both Trump and Biden) and the swings in pricing due to loss of supply chain and the stickiness of pricing associated with its return.

        • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
          13·
          6 months ago

          like Target lowering grocery prices and the like

          That’s not them.lowering prices…

          That’s them launching a “value brand” they slap their name on.

          It’s priced low to capture market share. Why make $1 a unit you’re selling when you can make $2 a unit because you’re also the one who makes it?

    • snooggums@midwest.socialEnglish
      23·
      6 months ago

      if the inflation formula had accounted for borrowing costs like they USED TO, the inflation numbers would match much more closely with public sentiment

      It is a total mystery why they removed it!

      • Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world
        17·
        6 months ago

        Last year, they actually put out a report stating that inflation was back to normal “when you discount the costs of groceries, power, housing and fuel” 🤦

        You know, just minor luxury items that everyone can choose to forgo if they want to!

        • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
          43·
          6 months ago

          This is a great little misleading factoid – the missing piece being that inflation is also back to normal if you do include the cost of groceries, power, housing, and fuel.

          The fact that they’re excluded from the usual metric isn’t some weird economic misleading-metric plot (although, those certainly exist). It’s just that the CPI usually excludes those items because their prices can swing around in ways that are different from the ways that the baseline price of everything else swings around. But, if you include them in the analysis of what’s happened since 2020, the answer doesn’t change at all.

          • Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world
            41·
            6 months ago

            So you’re saying that groceries, power, and housing are NOT more expensive now than in 2020? Is that seriously what you’re trying to make people believe??

            the CPI usually excludes those items because their prices can swing around in ways that are different from the ways that the baseline price of everything else swings around.

            The most basic things that everyone needs, the things that especially the working poor spend the vast majority of all income isn’t itself the baseline for the CONSUMER price index?

            That’s as fucking useless to gauge how regular people are doing as measuring the overall economy by GDP and stock prices, then! 🤦

            • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
              72·
              6 months ago

              So you’re saying that groceries, power, and housing are NOT more expensive now than in 2020? Is that seriously what you’re trying to make people believe??

              I am saying that their prices have gone up pretty much by the same amount as the general CPI, including a huge spike upwards in 2022, which means that looking at the CPI without them is exactly the same (in this particular case) as looking at the CPI with them.

              Stop. Read again.

              I am saying that their prices have gone up pretty much by the same amount as the general CPI, including a huge spike upwards in 2022, which means that looking at the CPI without them is exactly the same (in this particular case) as looking at the CPI with them.

              Makes sense, right? Or no? I’m happy to talk in a little more detail if you want.

              Here are the numbers. It’s complex, obviously, and some commodities will spike way, way up, or drop below 0% inflation and stay negative for a while. But it actually happens that if you average it all out, CPI with everything is right now more or less the same as CPI with the normal stuff excluded. Good things to highlight to see it are “All Items” or “Less Food and Energy” or “Shelter”. Between those three, it’ll give you a pretty good picture, and they all behave pretty much the same - a big hump after Covid from supply-chain shock and corporate greed, i.e. the situation Biden came in with, and then reducing steadily back down as Biden’s policies got ahold of it.

              Makes sense? Or no? Like I say, I’m happy to talk about the details.