• jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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    9 months ago

    Without vote by mail, they won’t show up to the same degree. Trump’s vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.

    That’s not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.

    Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

    Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

    Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

    Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

    Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

    Biden can’t win without these states and if the election were today?

    • MagicShel@programming.dev
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      9 months ago

      Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We’re having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.

      There is zero ground game. I can’t believe it’s even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.

      • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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        9 months ago

        I’ve been watching and it’s absolutely hilarious, none of which is going to impact the general election.

        • MagicShel@programming.dev
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          9 months ago

          If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn’t matter. Organization and unity don’t matter. I’m not an expert, but I just don’t believe you are correct. For decades I’ve heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary’s (among others) loss blamed on it.

          I just don’t see how that can be right.

          • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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            9 months ago

            Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.

            She took winning for granted and only cared about beating Obama’s vote, because she still held a grudge.

            • frezik@midwest.social
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              9 months ago

              Hillary didn’t just lose because of a lack of “ground game” she lost because of instead of campaigning in states she needed to win, she did a victory lap and only went to states she was already locked in to win.

              That’s another way of saying “lack of ground game”.

              • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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                9 months ago

                Clinton had organizers in Michigan and Wisconsin, but she failed to visit the states personally which voters saw as taking them for granted.

                When the election rolled around, they did not.

                Which was especially stupid for her given how Wisconsin showed a willingness to vote R in statewide elections over and over. She SHOULD have been there.

              • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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                9 months ago

                You make it sound like something they couldn’t do.

                Not something they deliberately choose to ignore

                That’s the difference. Hillary had all the campaign resources and money to win, hell, she took a bunch from senate races thru a fucked up DNC “donor sharing” program.

                Then blew all that money traveling Blue states so people would clap for her.

                She didn’t just fuck up her race, she fucked up the house and senate as well.

                Details and specifics matter

            • MagicShel@programming.dev
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              9 months ago

              The other responder is correct. This is exactly what I was referring to. Why split hairs between a failure of the local party and self-sabotage resulting in no ground game?

              • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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                9 months ago

                I could copy paste what I told them, but it’s probably easier for you to just scroll down since it sounds like you already read it

    • mommykink@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      it’s still too early to call bro polls aren’t accurate this far from November bro