I’m not expressing any opinion one way or the other on this instance, but I think we might want to keep in mind that with hindsight, predictive signals can always be pointed to. It says Israeli authorities heard of the plan but didn’t consider the plan plausible. How many plans do they discard as implausible? Is this something they do 5 times a day, where they were 100% correct until this day, when they were only 4/5 correct? I think it would take a lot of knowledge about intelligence work and these particular reports to really decide if a gross mistake was made or worse, there’s complicity.
I’m not excusing Israel or making claims one way or the other. But I recall this with 9/11 and other episodes too: with hindsight we can always find signals that were there but didn’t get the attention they needed. This doesn’t always signal wilfull negligence.
I’m not expressing any opinion one way or the other on this instance, but I think we might want to keep in mind that with hindsight, predictive signals can always be pointed to. It says Israeli authorities heard of the plan but didn’t consider the plan plausible. How many plans do they discard as implausible? Is this something they do 5 times a day, where they were 100% correct until this day, when they were only 4/5 correct? I think it would take a lot of knowledge about intelligence work and these particular reports to really decide if a gross mistake was made or worse, there’s complicity.
I’m not excusing Israel or making claims one way or the other. But I recall this with 9/11 and other episodes too: with hindsight we can always find signals that were there but didn’t get the attention they needed. This doesn’t always signal wilfull negligence.