I don’t think that introducing electric motors into the mix is going to be the factor that drastically changes the above ratios.
Very confident you’re wrong in that sentiment.
American urban design is awful. It’s really bad. And I would feel safe claiming that most Americans who might consider bikeped commutes rule it out because it is just not practical with our sprawling, idiotic suburban model.
That electric motor decreases your delta with prevailing traffic substantially and massively expands your range both as a function of literal distance and as a function of how far you can get in a given time. ebikes have absolutely HUGE potential to act as a transition as US urban planners (hopefully) get their act together and stop building financially and environmentally unsustainable, ugly, unsafe cities – and start opening the door to the kind of infill needed to fix the already-busted ones.
And I would feel safe claiming that most Americans who might consider bikeped commutes rule it out because it is just not practical with our sprawling, idiotic suburban model.
Cars are what permit suburban areas to be practical; it was the rise of the car (and a few related technologies to a lesser degree, like the tram) that made the suburb popular. So, yeah, I think that it’s probably fair to say that suburbs aren’t well-suited to bicycle commuting, or foot.
But in general, people can – well, in general; if you’re a farmer or something that constrains you to live away from urban areas, no, but in general – live in urban areas rather than suburban. I mean, we have cities, and there are built-up areas in those cities, and in general, if you live in the suburb of a city, you could live in the city proper.
But that’s not the choice that people have generally been making. If we expected people to want to live in an urban environment, we’d expect to see apartment and condo prices in high-density areas constantly rising. We’d expect to see population on net shifting from suburbs into cities.
That shows that more people from outside the US entering the US move into an urban area than a suburban area. But inside the US – and overall – people have generally headed out of urban areas to live in suburbs.
That is, I don’t think that the problem is that planners have failed to provide what the consumer generally wants. I think that the consumer has had the option, and has decided that he wants to live in a suburb with a car.
Also, I think that there’s a question of whether this is US-specific or whether the US is just a leading indicator. My guess is that the world will likely tend to shift towards suburbs, absent some form of technological change. One tends to see urbanization globally – that is, people move out of rural areas, as a smaller portion of a developed economy is involved in agriculture. But that doesn’t mean that it’s to high-density areas; that’s inclusive of growth of suburbs:
To many people, the term “urban growth” connotes shiny new high-rise buildings or towering skyscrapers. But in a new analysis of 478 cities with populations of more than 1 million people, researchers at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES) found urban growth is seldom typified by such “upward” growth. Instead, the predominant pattern in cities across the world is outward expansion: Think suburbs instead of skyscrapers.
The article does mention India’s zoning restrictions:
In contrast, in places where populations are growing but zoning is sometimes restrictive (India)…
I’ve read before about problematic Indian zoning laws that restrict heights of construction in Indian cities; that might legitimately be a case where people are kept from living in higher-density areas despite wanting to do so. But I’m skeptical that that is a dominant factor globally. If one removed height restrictions on construction in some cities – take London, for example, where one has line-of-sight restrictions – I can certainly believe that prices in the built-up areas would drop somewhat, and a greater portion of people would live in the city proper than is the case today. Fine, that probably makes sense. But are height restrictions the dominant reason that people don’t choose to live in urban areas? Chicago has relatively non-restrictive height regulations, but it’s seen outflow too. This article discusses it and finds a small amount of growth right in downtown, a lot of growth in suburbs and exurbs, and population loss in the area in between:
The story was much different outside the core area. The balance of the city, where 93 percent of the people live, lost 250,000 residents – a loss greater than that of any municipality in the nation over the period – including Detroit. The losses were pervasive. More than 80 percent of the city’s 77 community areas located outside the core lost population.
Thus, the core area boom is far more than negated by the losses in the balance of the city. The losses that were sustained in the area between the urban core and the outer suburbs and exurbs were virtually all in the city itself.
The overwhelming reality of metropolitan growth in Chicago, however, is that the outer suburbs and exurbs continue to capture virtually all growth. Overall, areas outside 20 miles from the core of Chicago gained 573,000 residents between 2000 and 2010. By contrast, the entire metropolitan area gained only 362,000 residents. As a result, these outer suburbs and exurbs accounted for 158% of the Chicago metropolitan area’s population growth between 2000 and 2010. The core gains, city and inner suburban losses are illustrated in Figure 3.
That doesn’t really look like what one would expect if people were really intent on living in higher-density areas.
Literally everything you’ve written here is premised on the idea that people have a choice. That both kinds of living arrangements are equally available and people are choosing one over the other. That and a mistaken understanding of density that so many people have, where you think only Metropolis style apartment blocks could possibly be walkable when really the small town Main Street has been the icon of walkability for basically all of human history.
It’s such a fundamental error that I’m comfortable dismissing pretty much everything else you wrote based on it. There’s a reason almost the entire world and human history has cities that generally follow the same pattern. Walkable, modest density communities with a mix of uses that grow organically.
And there’s a reason those don’t get built anymore in the US. It’s not because people hate them. People love them. The ones that do exist are some of the most desirable places to live based on so many metrics. Particularly price, which is the true story - the supply on these kinds of towns is unbelievably tight and so people can’t afford to live in them. They’re forced by factors outside of their own preference and control to instead live in places that 100% require a car for all day today life activities with absolutely no mix of uses and where it is only legal to build single-family detached homes. Because these places are way cheaper. Even though they shouldn’t be. They absolutely and objectively should cost more to live in because it costs more for the municipal government to service you living in them. You consume more public resources living in them. But we subsidize them so much that they magically get cheaper even inclusive of one or two $10,000 a year cars.
The reason suburbs show so much clear growth is because we subsidize them intensely in so many ways.
And it wouldn’t even matter if you were right and people genuinely preferred suburbs because they’re not financially productive they’re not financially sustainable and they’re an environmental disaster. Just having a preference for something doesn’t mean that the government should tax everyone else and subsidize it for you.
Suburban areas are usually not linked to urban ones with corridors that support (e-)bikes, so you’d often need to literally construct a completely new set of bike-friendly routes to support them.
That electric motor decreases your delta with prevailing traffic substantially
People currently aren’t commuting in from suburbs on 30mph residential roads, they’re on 50-65mph highways. I live in the Bay Area, and there is not a good way to bike into the city currently from either the East Bay or from the North, both of which are where most of the actual suburban sprawl is. You’d literally have to get on BART if you’re in the East Bay, because the Bay Bridge doesn’t have bike or pedestrian pathways. And BART can’t handle that many more riders; it’s already a mess during rush hour.
stop building financially and environmentally unsustainable, ugly, unsafe cities
If your solution requires completely restructuring the way we build cities (how are you planning to change the ones already built), it’s not going to work in any meaningful timeframe. Our current model of city planning evolved over the past hundred years. We don’t have that long to move people to electrics.
Cities are not being designed the way they are (highly compact downtown area with majority of jobs) in order to cater to cars, they’re doing it to cater to businesses. Rather than trying to get people to commute in a better way, we should be focusing on what we’ve already seen deal the most damage to urban business: remote work. That has removed, and will continue to remove, far more cars from the road each day than e-bikes will.
Our current model of urban planning has only existed since the middle of the 20th century. Only really got started in around 1960s.
I think it’s important to point out that it is definitely under 100 years. On the scales of human urban policy it is the brand new experiment. And it is a disaster. And we’re still throwing bad money after good on it in huge quantities.
Cities are already remodeling themselves, small bits at a time, to start fixing these issues. There is no choice in the matter here. They have to do it or else they’re going to find themselves with roads full of potholes that they can’t afford to fix and failing water systems and all those other modern signs of decay growing worse and worse until they basically aren’t a town anymore. As someone in the Bay Area you should know this well, because that City both has some disastrous symptoms and is building policies to this effect.
Very confident you’re wrong in that sentiment.
American urban design is awful. It’s really bad. And I would feel safe claiming that most Americans who might consider bikeped commutes rule it out because it is just not practical with our sprawling, idiotic suburban model.
That electric motor decreases your delta with prevailing traffic substantially and massively expands your range both as a function of literal distance and as a function of how far you can get in a given time. ebikes have absolutely HUGE potential to act as a transition as US urban planners (hopefully) get their act together and stop building financially and environmentally unsustainable, ugly, unsafe cities – and start opening the door to the kind of infill needed to fix the already-busted ones.
Cars are what permit suburban areas to be practical; it was the rise of the car (and a few related technologies to a lesser degree, like the tram) that made the suburb popular. So, yeah, I think that it’s probably fair to say that suburbs aren’t well-suited to bicycle commuting, or foot.
But in general, people can – well, in general; if you’re a farmer or something that constrains you to live away from urban areas, no, but in general – live in urban areas rather than suburban. I mean, we have cities, and there are built-up areas in those cities, and in general, if you live in the suburb of a city, you could live in the city proper.
But that’s not the choice that people have generally been making. If we expected people to want to live in an urban environment, we’d expect to see apartment and condo prices in high-density areas constantly rising. We’d expect to see population on net shifting from suburbs into cities.
googles
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/demographic-and-economic-trends-in-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/psd_05-22-18_community-type-01-03/
That shows that more people from outside the US entering the US move into an urban area than a suburban area. But inside the US – and overall – people have generally headed out of urban areas to live in suburbs.
That is, I don’t think that the problem is that planners have failed to provide what the consumer generally wants. I think that the consumer has had the option, and has decided that he wants to live in a suburb with a car.
Also, I think that there’s a question of whether this is US-specific or whether the US is just a leading indicator. My guess is that the world will likely tend to shift towards suburbs, absent some form of technological change. One tends to see urbanization globally – that is, people move out of rural areas, as a smaller portion of a developed economy is involved in agriculture. But that doesn’t mean that it’s to high-density areas; that’s inclusive of growth of suburbs:
https://environment.yale.edu/news/article/global-urban-growth-typified-by-suburbs-not-skyscrapers
The article does mention India’s zoning restrictions:
I’ve read before about problematic Indian zoning laws that restrict heights of construction in Indian cities; that might legitimately be a case where people are kept from living in higher-density areas despite wanting to do so. But I’m skeptical that that is a dominant factor globally. If one removed height restrictions on construction in some cities – take London, for example, where one has line-of-sight restrictions – I can certainly believe that prices in the built-up areas would drop somewhat, and a greater portion of people would live in the city proper than is the case today. Fine, that probably makes sense. But are height restrictions the dominant reason that people don’t choose to live in urban areas? Chicago has relatively non-restrictive height regulations, but it’s seen outflow too. This article discusses it and finds a small amount of growth right in downtown, a lot of growth in suburbs and exurbs, and population loss in the area in between:
https://www.newgeography.com/content/003560-chicago-outer-suburban-and-exurban-growth-leader
That doesn’t really look like what one would expect if people were really intent on living in higher-density areas.
Literally everything you’ve written here is premised on the idea that people have a choice. That both kinds of living arrangements are equally available and people are choosing one over the other. That and a mistaken understanding of density that so many people have, where you think only Metropolis style apartment blocks could possibly be walkable when really the small town Main Street has been the icon of walkability for basically all of human history.
It’s such a fundamental error that I’m comfortable dismissing pretty much everything else you wrote based on it. There’s a reason almost the entire world and human history has cities that generally follow the same pattern. Walkable, modest density communities with a mix of uses that grow organically.
And there’s a reason those don’t get built anymore in the US. It’s not because people hate them. People love them. The ones that do exist are some of the most desirable places to live based on so many metrics. Particularly price, which is the true story - the supply on these kinds of towns is unbelievably tight and so people can’t afford to live in them. They’re forced by factors outside of their own preference and control to instead live in places that 100% require a car for all day today life activities with absolutely no mix of uses and where it is only legal to build single-family detached homes. Because these places are way cheaper. Even though they shouldn’t be. They absolutely and objectively should cost more to live in because it costs more for the municipal government to service you living in them. You consume more public resources living in them. But we subsidize them so much that they magically get cheaper even inclusive of one or two $10,000 a year cars.
The reason suburbs show so much clear growth is because we subsidize them intensely in so many ways.
And it wouldn’t even matter if you were right and people genuinely preferred suburbs because they’re not financially productive they’re not financially sustainable and they’re an environmental disaster. Just having a preference for something doesn’t mean that the government should tax everyone else and subsidize it for you.
Suburban areas are usually not linked to urban ones with corridors that support (e-)bikes, so you’d often need to literally construct a completely new set of bike-friendly routes to support them.
People currently aren’t commuting in from suburbs on 30mph residential roads, they’re on 50-65mph highways. I live in the Bay Area, and there is not a good way to bike into the city currently from either the East Bay or from the North, both of which are where most of the actual suburban sprawl is. You’d literally have to get on BART if you’re in the East Bay, because the Bay Bridge doesn’t have bike or pedestrian pathways. And BART can’t handle that many more riders; it’s already a mess during rush hour.
If your solution requires completely restructuring the way we build cities (how are you planning to change the ones already built), it’s not going to work in any meaningful timeframe. Our current model of city planning evolved over the past hundred years. We don’t have that long to move people to electrics.
Cities are not being designed the way they are (highly compact downtown area with majority of jobs) in order to cater to cars, they’re doing it to cater to businesses. Rather than trying to get people to commute in a better way, we should be focusing on what we’ve already seen deal the most damage to urban business: remote work. That has removed, and will continue to remove, far more cars from the road each day than e-bikes will.
Not a bike commute: no commute.
Our current model of urban planning has only existed since the middle of the 20th century. Only really got started in around 1960s.
I think it’s important to point out that it is definitely under 100 years. On the scales of human urban policy it is the brand new experiment. And it is a disaster. And we’re still throwing bad money after good on it in huge quantities.
Cities are already remodeling themselves, small bits at a time, to start fixing these issues. There is no choice in the matter here. They have to do it or else they’re going to find themselves with roads full of potholes that they can’t afford to fix and failing water systems and all those other modern signs of decay growing worse and worse until they basically aren’t a town anymore. As someone in the Bay Area you should know this well, because that City both has some disastrous symptoms and is building policies to this effect.