It wouldn’t be a collapse. It would be a transformation into the most heavily armed fascist dictatorship in the history of the world. If we’re lucky, it stays isolationist, but it likely won’t.
It’s already in decay. A fascist turn would just destabilize society so much that the country breaks up into independent warring state-regions in a civil war. The US will probably nuke itself.
There is nobody in the world that would be able to contain it. Nobody is even close to having the conventional power projection capabilities required for this. Even if “only” democracy ends in America and a dictatorship takes its place, the rest of the world is going to suffer horribly. In the short run alone, all sorts of autocratic regimes (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, plus a couple others in South America and Africa) that were primarily or entirely limited by America’s global military presence keeping a lid on them would immediately cease the opportunity to turn entire regions of this planet into warzones. That alone is horrific.
A complete breakup of America on the other hand (which could happen if a dictatorship failed to establish itself) could be a potential doomsday event, I agree with you. The economic shocks caused by this alone would send the world into chaos and that’s not even taking the danger of nuclear war (civil and global) into account.
Even if we get an isolationist Trump administration controlled by the Kremlin, this would also be catastrophic, for numerous reasons, from weakening NATO to stalling and reverting desperately needed action on climate change. Hell, imagine another global pandemic, once again without anyone at the helm. Love or hate the US, it was clear that the lack of American leadership during COVID-19 was the primary factor responsible for the poor global response to it.
Nah, and I say this as an ansoc who would love for the US to break up, but there’s just no appetite for that at any scale large enough to actually cause this.
Even at the time of the Civil War, it was only when state governments decided to secede that things kicked off, and no states now- no matter how “blue” they are- are going to try that. It would be up to individuals, and there’s just no organizational capability for that at the scale needed to force a civil war. The closest we might ever get is a bunch of individual attacks or small-scale violent mobs.
It wouldn’t be a collapse. It would be a transformation into the most heavily armed fascist dictatorship in the history of the world. If we’re lucky, it stays isolationist, but it likely won’t.
It’s already in decay. A fascist turn would just destabilize society so much that the country breaks up into independent warring state-regions in a civil war. The US will probably nuke itself.
That’s some high risk wishful thinking. A destabilized US needs to be contained very quickly or it could take the entire planet with it.
There is nobody in the world that would be able to contain it. Nobody is even close to having the conventional power projection capabilities required for this. Even if “only” democracy ends in America and a dictatorship takes its place, the rest of the world is going to suffer horribly. In the short run alone, all sorts of autocratic regimes (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, plus a couple others in South America and Africa) that were primarily or entirely limited by America’s global military presence keeping a lid on them would immediately cease the opportunity to turn entire regions of this planet into warzones. That alone is horrific.
A complete breakup of America on the other hand (which could happen if a dictatorship failed to establish itself) could be a potential doomsday event, I agree with you. The economic shocks caused by this alone would send the world into chaos and that’s not even taking the danger of nuclear war (civil and global) into account.
Even if we get an isolationist Trump administration controlled by the Kremlin, this would also be catastrophic, for numerous reasons, from weakening NATO to stalling and reverting desperately needed action on climate change. Hell, imagine another global pandemic, once again without anyone at the helm. Love or hate the US, it was clear that the lack of American leadership during COVID-19 was the primary factor responsible for the poor global response to it.
People getting nuked is the scenario you’re describing as weird to not be excited for.
Nah, and I say this as an ansoc who would love for the US to break up, but there’s just no appetite for that at any scale large enough to actually cause this.
Even at the time of the Civil War, it was only when state governments decided to secede that things kicked off, and no states now- no matter how “blue” they are- are going to try that. It would be up to individuals, and there’s just no organizational capability for that at the scale needed to force a civil war. The closest we might ever get is a bunch of individual attacks or small-scale violent mobs.